Bitcoin Surges to $78K—Will It Reach the $80,700 Break‑Even Point?

On‑chain analysis shows that short‑term Bitcoin holders (those who bought within the last 155 days) now have an average cost basis of $80,700. This “Realized Price” metric tracks the average acquisition level for a specific cohort; when the market price sits above it, holders enjoy net unrealized gains, and when it sits below, they are collectively in loss. After a sharp drawdown in Q4 2025, Bitcoin has traded beneath the short‑term‑holder (STH) Realized Price, dragging the cost basis down as new buyers entered at lower levels. The metric has historically acted as a support/resistance line because low‑conviction investors tend to react strongly when price approaches their break‑even point. The recent rally pushed BTC to about $78,200, nudging it close to the $80,700 threshold. If the uptrend continues, a retest of this level could trigger noticeable on‑chain activity as STHs decide whether to hold, add, or liquidate positions.

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